The loose fiscal policy announced by Donald Trump, increasing expenditures and cutting
taxes, will increase the US public deficit and will require an increase in the
supply of bonds by the Treasury, that
will steepen the yield curve in the USA. This policy would be implemented in an
economy that is close to full employment, with little or no slack, with obvious
inflationary consequences.
This, in turn, would lead to a tighter monetary
policy by the FED, as announced yesterday . The increase in US interest rates,
combined with an accommodative monetary policies in most of the G7 countries,
is leading to an appreciation of the dollar. Besides that, we can observe positive
impacts on economies highly dependent on exports like Germany.
For all the above reasons, we believe that the DAX
index will reflect this and so our call is a long position today at the level
of 11.300 points.
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