Friday, June 5, 2009

Brazilian Indicators - A Few Comments

Brazilian Indicators
In April, capacity utilization (CNI) rose from 78.8% s.a. to 79.2% s.a.. This is the third consecutive increase on the margin. The index is however at low levels when compared compared with the peaks of 83% seen up to mid-2008. The recovery has been driven by the good performance of the capacity utilization of the consumer as well as the ones related to intermediate goods.

The employment level in the manufacturing sector declined again, -1.1% m/m s.a., pushing the annual change down from -2.6% y/y to -3.6% y/y. This is the sixth decline in a row on the monthly basis. Real sales in the manufacturing sector declined 1.9% m/m s.a. from 2.8% m/m s.a. increase in March.

The rebound in the Brazilian economy is coming from the auto sector. Indeed, the rebound on domestic sales as well as on production remains steady. Auto production rose 4.0% m/m s.a., pushing the annual change up from -16.5% y/y to -8.0% y/y. Also, domestic sales went up by 5.8% m/m s.a. It seems that all together the performance of the auto sector is pointing out to further stabilization of auto industry sales.

EM Are Booming
Emerging-market stocks climbed, heading for the third weekly advance, as speculation increased that the worst of the global recession has passed after a report showing that the U.S. lost fewer jobs in May than forecast. Indeed, Brazilian stocks rose, sending the Bovespa to a third week of gains, after metal producers rallied and fewer U.S. jobs losses boosted speculation the recession is easing. Indeed, it is clear that the worse of the recession is behind us and that the recover has already begun. Brazil is booming and it is hard to believe that grow can reach zero in 2009.

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